CN Copper Imports Forecast Above 100000 Tons in May China's

refined copper imports, the world'sbiggest, may have topped 100,000 metric tons in May for a seventhstraight month even as high prices deterred buying and the economyshowed signs of slowing, traders and analysts said. ``Last year was exceptional for copper imports into China, and wedon't expect May's levels to be very different from a yearearlier,'' Li Jingyuan, analyst at Haifu Futures Co. in Shanghai,said. Imports could be as much as 120,000 tons, compared with121,383 tons a year earlier, Wang Fei, analyst at Maike DicksonInvestment Management Co., said by e-mail today. Copper prices in London have rallied 18 percent this year, asdemand from China and supply disruptions helped to shrink globalstockpiles by more than a third. China's manufacturing growthslowed last month, raising concern that use of the metal for wiresand pipes may decline. China imported 127,977 tons of refined copper in April, up from126,421 tons in March, according to revised data issued by theBeijing-based customs office on May 22. Preliminary trade data forMay are scheduled for release early next week. ``There's money to be lost importing copper at these prices, yetwe're not going to see import numbers fall much because mostmaterial coming in is from long-term contracts signed when priceconditions were favorable,'' Pang Ying , an analyst at Shenzhen Rongtuo Trading Co., said. Price Ratio Copper futures in Shanghai have risen only 3.7 percent this year,lagging behind benchmark London expanded metal series Exchange prices. The Shanghaicontract should be trading at more than 65,000 yuan ($9,386) a tonfor imports to be profitable, Zeng Chao, chief metals analyst atEverbright Futures Co., said. Traders in China normally use the ratio of domestic prices to theLME to gauge whether imports are profitable, after taking intoaccount costs including taxes, duties and freight charges. The most-active contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange traded atan average 62,935 yuan a ton in May. LME copper for delivery inthree months, which reached a record $8,880 a ton on April 17,averaged $8,247 a ton. Global stockpiles of copper tracked by the LME dropped 38 percentthis year to 122,900 tons as of yesterday, while Shanghaiinventories climbed 85 percent to stand at 44,554 tons last week. ``Spot orders are few and far between these days, and with theapproach of the slow summer season and ample domestic stockpiles,there's no real urgency for imports to hit the physical market,''said Jia Zheng, an analyst at Southwest Futures Co. in Shanghai. Average prices of copper for immediate delivery in Changjiang, Shanghai's biggest cash market, have fallen 4.6percent from a year ago. China Output Chinese copper imports may be on a gradual decline as domestic production increases, said traders and analysts. China's copper output was329,400 tons in April, up 23 percent from a year ago, the NationalBureau of Statistics said on May 14. ``Imports of refined copper may fall but imports of copperconcentrate will continue to increase as fabricators and processorshave to keep production going,'' said Yang Zhenqiang, chief analystat China International Futures (Tianjin) Co. China's imports of copper concentrate , the main raw material, were 1.87 million tons in the first fourmonths of this year, up 23 percent from the same period a year ago. Still, ``China is a net importer, and will remain a net importer ofcopper, no matter how unfavorable the conditions,'' Lin Yuhui , research manager at China International Futures Co. in Shenzhen,said. Economic Growth Gross domestic product in China, the fastest-growing major economy,expanded 11.9 percent last year and 10.6 percent in the firstquarter of 2008. Manufacturing growth in China eased in May, the CLSA ChinaPurchasing Managers' Index showed on June 2. The gauge declined toa seasonally adjusted 54.7 last month from 55.4 in April, raisingconcern that the country's copper consumption for appliances andother goods may slow and lead to lower prices. China's copper exports may rise as importers re-route metal to neighboring countriesuntil local prices improve, said Shenzhen-based Huang Shoufeng , an analyst at Jinrui Futures Co.